Impact models and scenarios



The Maps, diagrams and data section of the Climate guide includes scenarios regarding the impacts of climate change to the hydrological cycle and decomposition of leaf litter, for example. These scenarios are based on the results of the impact models. In the impact models, natural phenomena, moisturisation and drying of soil for example, have been depicted with mathematical equations. These equations are used to calculated changes in the values under inspection in relation to time. The results of the models depend decisively on the definition of the model or which factors and processes have been taken into consideration in the description of the phenomenon. In addition, results are affected by the speed these factors are estimated to change. Naturally, climate data, estimates of future precipitation and air temperature used in the models have an effect on the results of the impact models. 

The scenarios in the Climate guide regarding the impacts of climate change represent an attempt to describe alternative future views for specific characteristic of specific natural phenomena. The scenarios should not be expected to provide an extensive or precise description of future events, as such a description is impossible to produce.